Key Topics & Analysis:
Study Outline

Never before have North American or global refining and fuel markets undergone such dramatic change. The required use of renewables such as ethanol and biodiesel is sweeping and transforming the traditional gasoline markets North America, Europe, South America and parts of Asia.

The premier consultants to the key sectors involved in renewable fuels, the petroleum and agriculture sectors, have teamed together as Hart Energy and Informa Economics are jointly offering major global refining, agri-business, financial institutions and agricultural co-ops solid and fundamental analytical information – and forecasts which cover these key issues over the 2006-2015 time period.

Already well received in the global marketplace, this multi-client study is a proven and cost-effective avenue for your organization to have the most concise and in-depth analysis available anywhere on the key issues involved in such dramatic transformation. We invite you to subscribe today by returning the subscription form on page 10 of the pdf file below or simply contact Scott Richman at Informa Economics
or Frederick L. Potter at Hart Energy to secure your participation in this global study.

I. Ethanol & Biodiesel Capacity Forecast – 2006-2015

Key issues such as feedstock availability, value for refiners, production economics and available tax credits are all considered in the forecast outlook for ethanol and biodiesel for the study time-period.

II. Projected Production by Calendar Year

Forecasts for individual calendar years are projected as capacity growth is sequenced over each calendar year – and the availability of Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) credits will affect the future demand curve for ethanol.

III. Forecast Prices: Crude, Gasoline & Ethanol 2006-2015

World crude oil prices will remain the dominant and determining factor for gasoline prices and provide the foundation for ethanol values. Key assumptions on refinery margins and relative octane values are provided in this important aspect of the analysis.

IV. Transportation & Blending Logistics – Understanding the Challenge

With the increase in ethanol production and the emergence of markets on the East and West Coasts, rail system capacity and turnaround times have already become critical operational issues for the ethanol industry. Moreover, the RFS has created new requirements for motor fuel transportation and blending logistics – refiners now move RBOB through pipelines for terminal blending with ethanol prior to transfer and legal sale to wholesale and consumer transportation markets. Between 65% and 80% of the North American transportation market will be affected by these changes over the forecast period. Analysis and impacts are provided.

V. Blending Economics: Trade-Off Between Octane, RFS Value & Rvp

MTBE limitations, ethanol requirements, and new standards for sulfur and vapor pressure all change the North American traditional base of refinery blending economics. A review of refinery octane value, blending considerations and the relative role of alkylate, isooctane is provided.

VI. Supply & Demand Balance: The RFS & “Clean Octane” Requirements

High crude prices and the RFS have created enormous ethanol capacity expansion. In the short term, efforts to limit MTBE have dramatically raised ethanol prices. Over time, the ethanol supply and demand balance relative to the RFS and the refiner's need for “clean octane” will determine market price. Ethanol supply and demand balance is projected over the forecast period.

The entire prospectus and enrollment in pdf form

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